The hottest American industry may rebound temporar

2022-08-05
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New York, August 25 (Reuters) - for U.S. industrial enterprises, signs of recovery may be fleeting

The continued decline in orders from industrial giant Emerson Electric ( In recent weeks, the recovery of demand has indeed boosted the manufacturing industry

recently, many industrial enterprises indicated that demand seemed to stabilize, and most of the profits in the past quarter were better than expected, which helped inspire investor confidence

An index measuring the performance of U.S. industrial stocks rose 74 percent from its march low, much higher than the 55 percent rise of the S & P 500 index over the same period

Emerson, whose products cover a wide range of enterprises and household equipment, said on Tuesday that the order speed is stabilizing The company's orders fell 25 percent in the three months, less than the figures released in June, because the decline in orders for three of the five products slowed down

"the economy is building a bottom," Emerson said in a document submitted The stock rose 2 percent on Tuesday

"despite the signs of stabilization, orders in the industrial, capital and housing markets are still sluggish," said Jeffrey Sprague, an analyst at Citigroup in a research report. "In the short term, there are obvious downside risks in revenue and forecasts."

** may the recovery be "type W"**

although Emerson's orders in three areas have improved, the orders of its huge process management and industrial automation business are still weak The former decreased by 20 to 25 percent, and the latter by more than 30 percent

Jack de Gan, investment director of Harbor Advisory, said that such an order trend shows that major U.S. enterprises are still cautious, and most of them are preparing for a double dip ("W-shaped") recession Harbor owns Emerson shares and has been buying them for new customers, but has not increased its holdings in existing accounts

"it is an unprecedented measure taken by the government to help slow down the landslide and build the bottom. However, these measures are not indefinite." De Gan said

"in our view, the gross domestic product (GDP) will first show positive growth for several quarters, and then decline again." "Many people in the business community are also worried about this situation, so they don't place orders with Emerson and other companies," de Gan said

he said that the stock price of industrial enterprises has risen under the expectation of inventory reconstruction, but the experimenter who focuses on the automatic completion of investment in industrial stocks will get a better price on the other side of the W model

** the economy may be bottoming out * *

there are some recent economic data that support the theory that industrial demand has hit the bottom

according to the data of the Federal Reserve, the industrial production of the United States in July increased for the first time since december2007 Next week's ism manufacturing index is expected to show expansion, achieving the eighth consecutive improvement

but some data give reasons for caution

the architecture bills index, a leading indicator of non residential buildings (construction), shows that this field has been shrinking since January because of poor credit and limited impetus of government stimulus measures

according to IHS Global Insight, US infrastructure spending is expected to decline by 4.3% this year and may continue to decline next year The U.S. Labor Department announced last week that wholesale prices fell 6.8 percent from a year earlier

"this is another reason, which shows that the profit next year may not be as optimistic as some people expected, because the profit margin will not expand as rapidly as expected in the process of recovery." De Gan said

Hackett group, a global consulting firm, pointed out that the factor that further depresses profits is that the cost situation of many large enterprises is still inconsistent with the market demand Large enterprises need to cut costs further before they can transfer them to a suitable substrate to adapt to the current situation of shrinking revenue

According to Hackett's survey, the income of 1000 representative companies in the world decreased by an average of 23.7% in the past year, but the reduction in sales and general administrative expenses was only 6.7%

"some people are tough on freezing unnecessary expenditures and comprehensively cutting costs, but most enterprises still seem unable to control the structure of general administrative expenses." Hackett's research leader ushered in greater opportunities for the packaging instrument industry, said mihel Janssen

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