The hottest systemic risk may cause oversold plast

Systemic risks may cause oversold plastics to usher in a restorative rebound

this week, the bulk commodity market experienced "Black Monday" again, including plastics. The main contract l1201 fell in large quantities, and once broke through the 9000 point integer mark in the session. The recent systematic risk is the main factor affecting the plastic market. Coupled with the lack of bright spots in the fundamentals, plastic is easy to fall but difficult to rise in the medium and long term. 9. Displacement measurement accuracy stroke accuracy: ± 0.5%;. Looking forward to the future, in the case of uncertain world economic prospects, the focus of the plastic price is moving downward. However, after a week of sharp and rapid decline, there may be a short-term recovery. In addition, the "National Day" stock preparation period has been started, and the supporting role of downstream demand for prices will also be reflected

slowdown in economic growth

at present, the slowdown in world economic growth has become an indisputable fact. On the surface, after the European debt crisis, developed economies such as the United States and Japan have also experienced a series of risk events such as the increase of the debt ceiling and the reduction of sovereign credit rating, but in essence, the world's major economies are facing the possibility of a second recession. The downside risks of the U.S. economy are still relatively obvious: first, production decline and inventory expansion may experience an accelerated decline process of de stocking in the future; Secondly, the PMI new order sub item is still depressed, indicating that manufacturers' expectations for demand are still weak; In addition, the employment sub index continues to decline, and the recent outbreak of large-scale demonstrations on Wall Street also confirms the public's concern about the prospects of the U.S. economy

in view of the current difficulties faced by the world economy, compared with the 2008 financial crisis, governments of all countries now have little policy space left. The core CPI of the United States has reached the warning level of 2% in August, which restricts the government from further stimulating the economy to a certain extent. The decision to buy long-term treasury bonds and sell short-term treasury bonds at the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting held on September 21 reflects that the United States is still unable to launch qe3 in the near future and can only continue to implement easing policies in disguise

various signs show that after the 2008 crisis, the loose policies of governments to stimulate the economy have appeared sequelae. The economic slowdown and inflationary pressure coexist, and the phenomenon of "stagflation" has initially emerged in the form of market-oriented operation mode. In the context of neither sufficient liquidity nor the improvement of the real economy, it is difficult for the capital market to have a strong performance, and the overall volatility may intensify

the downstream stocking time of plastics has reached

in terms of upstream costs, according to the analysis of crude oil, under the resonance of systematic risk pressure and the passing of the summer travel peak in the United States, the price of crude oil will remain in the US dollar range in the near future. At present, the decline of the US dollar index at 78 points has led to the rebound of oil prices from the bottom, which may play a certain role in promoting chemicals and plastics

from the perspective of supply and demand of LLDPE, the downstream "National Day" stock period and the upcoming peak season of agricultural film demand are the biggest highlights of plastics. The operating rate of agricultural film production enterprises has generally increased to more than 70%, and the demand situation is relatively optimistic. At the supply level, the overhaul of Dushanzi Petrochemical is currently the one that has the greatest impact on the market, because the overhaul will remain until the end of the month, and the short-term market supply pressure will not increase significantly; In terms of import, LLDPE imported 274300 tons in August, with a month on month increase of 59.11% and a year-on-year increase of 20.78%, hitting a new high this year, which has a certain impact on the domestic market. The overall linear supply and demand situation is relatively balanced. Although there is no significant improvement, the continuous increase in demand still brings some confidence to the market

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